Our pre-match read
TorinovsUdinese
Win Probability
40%31%28%
Home winDrawAway win

Torino won this one the hard way — sitting at 38 percent possession, getting outshot 15 to 12, and still walking away with three points. Udinese controlled the ball for most of the night and had nothing to show for it. That, more than anything, is the story of Monday in Turin.

First Half: Torino Strike, Udinese Respond

For the better part of an hour, this looked like a game Udinese were content to play on their terms and Torino were content to let them. The visitors circulated the ball patiently — 641 passes at 90 percent accuracy — but without much end product. Then Torino reminded everyone why possession numbers don't go on the table.

Daniel Bragança broke the deadlock in the 36th minute, and it was the kind of goal that makes the stat sheet look embarrassing for the team that had the ball more. Torino had barely been in Udinese's half, and suddenly they were ahead.

The lead didn't last long. Jurgen Ekkelenkamp leveled things in the 43rd minute, and Udinese went into the break with momentum and, frankly, the better of the half. One goal each, and it felt like the game was theirs to take.

Second Half: Kulenovic Puts It to Bed

Udinese came out of the break still holding the ball, still looking the more composed side on paper. But Torino weren't interested in paper. Sandro Kulenovic put the home side back in front in the 67th minute, and that was the game.

Qué noche for Udinese's attack — 15 shots, one on target. One. Torino's goalkeeper was barely asked a question all evening, recording zero saves, which tells you how little Udinese did with their dominance in the final third. Torino, meanwhile, put four of their 12 shots on target and scored twice. Ruthless efficiency against wastefulness.

Nicolò Bertola picked up a late yellow in the 89th minute as Udinese's frustration boiled over, but by then the result was long settled.

Verdict

Our pre-match read made Torino the favorite at 40 percent, and they justified it — not by outplaying Udinese, but by punishing them when it counted.

Torino's form coming in — two draws, a loss, a win, a loss — suggested a team that hadn't quite found consistency, and this result won't entirely put that question to rest. But a home win where you absorb pressure and still come out on top? That's a good day. Udinese, who entered on a rough run of three straight losses before last week, will feel this one for a while. Cabal, the numbers were on their side all night — just not the ones that matter.

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