Our pre-match read
PortugalvsCroatia
Win Probability
57%26%17%
Home winDrawAway win

Croatia came to Toronto with a plan, and for a while it was working. Portugal had the ball — 60 percent of it, 584 passes, nine corners — and relatively little to show for any of it. Then Ivan Perisic scored eight minutes into the second half, and suddenly this World Cup round-of-16 match had a very different feeling.

It didn't last. But for a stretch, Croatia made Portugal look like a team that owned the game without controlling it.


The First Half That Wasn't Enough

Portugal pressed and probed through the first 45, but Croatia's defensive shape held. The early sign of Portugal's frustration came in the 17th minute when Rúben Dias picked up a yellow card — a booking that felt like a symptom of a team not finding what it was looking for. Croatia, for their part, weren't sitting entirely deep. They finished the match with 13 shots to Portugal's 15, and six on target to Portugal's three. The numbers tell you something: this was a game Portugal dominated in possession and Croatia nearly stole on efficiency.

Perisic Gives Croatia the Lead

Fifty-three minutes in, Perisic put Croatia ahead, and the 43,036 at BMO Field felt the shift. Croatia had been the side more dangerous in transition, and here was the proof. Our pre-match read had Portugal as favorites at 57 percent, and right around the hour mark, that read looked shaky.

Luka Modric picked up a yellow in the 59th minute — a sign of Croatia's increasing need to disrupt Portugal's rhythm rather than absorb it. Portugal were pressing harder now, and Croatia were feeling it.

Ronaldo Levels from the Spot

The equalizer came in the 68th minute. Cristiano Ronaldo stepped up from the penalty spot and converted. No drama in the finish itself — clean, placed, done. Portugal level, the crowd back in it, and Croatia now facing the question of whether they had enough to hold on through the final 20-plus minutes.

They nearly did.

Ramos in Stoppage Time

¡Ala gran púchica! — because that is the only way to greet a 94th-minute header that flips a World Cup knockout match. Gonçalo Ramos met a cross from Rafael Leão and put Portugal in front at the death. Croatia, who had defended with discipline and purpose for most of the night, couldn't hold the wall up one more time.

Perisic — the man who had given Croatia the lead — collected a yellow card in the eighth minute of stoppage time, cabal, the bookend to a night that gave with one hand and took with the other.


The final numbers are a little deceptive. Portugal's 15 shots produced three on target; Croatia's 13 produced six. Portugal dominated with the ball and Croatia made them work for every inch of the result. The pre-match read had Portugal as the favorites, and that's how it ended — but only just.

Portugal will feel relief more than anything else. Croatia will feel the weight of what might have been. The question now is whether Portugal can find something more convincing in the next round, because a team this reliant on late moments and set pieces will eventually run out of time to fix things.

Follow every World Cup 2026 result, live group standings, and the knockout bracket on our World Cup 2026 hub, and get the full breakdown in our complete guide.