Our pre-match read
Manchester CityvsIpswich Town
Win Probability
76%15%10%
Home winDrawAway win

For about forty minutes on Saturday, this looked like a comfortable afternoon for Manchester City. Then Ipswich Town decided they hadn't read that script.

City opened the scoring in the 19th minute when Phil Foden finished off a move that Jérémy Doku had driven into life. Clean, well-worked, the kind of goal you expect from a side that finished the day with 69.8% possession and 745 passes. But Ipswich answered almost immediately — Daizen Maeda pulled one back in the 21st, set up by Abdoul Ouattara, and suddenly the Etihad had a game on its hands.

It didn't last long. Erling Haaland restored the lead in the 34th minute with a header from a Mateo Kovacic delivery, and at 2-1 going into the break, City had the cushion they needed.

Haaland Puts It Away — Or So It Seemed

The Norwegian made it three in the 69th minute, this time on the ground, with Iliman Ndiaye picking up the assist. At 3-1, the match looked done. Our pre-match read had City as heavy favorites at 76%, and that is exactly how it was playing out.

Then came the final stretch, and en qué clavo se encontraba Ipswich — down two with twenty minutes left, chasing a result against a side that barely breaks a sweat at home. But they kept pressing. They fouled their way back into moments (16 fouls on the night to City's 8), and with the clock deep into stoppage time, Zian Flemming converted a penalty in the 90th minute to make it 3-2.

Suddenly there were yellow cards flying. Josko Gvardiol was booked in the 90th+7 for City, Leif Davis picked one up for Ipswich in the 90th+12, and the whole thing ended with that uncomfortable, teeth-clenched energy that a 3-1 scoreline really shouldn't produce.

Ouattara had already been cautioned in the 73rd — he'd had a mixed evening, setting up Maeda's goal but spending the second half on the referee's radar.

What the Numbers Say

City's control was real. Nineteen shots to Ipswich's eight, though only six of City's were on target compared to three for the visitors. Ipswich's goalkeeper was busy — four saves — while City's keeper was barely tested, making just one. The gap in quality was evident in almost every column, which makes the final scoreline a little misleading.

Ipswich came in on a rough stretch — one win in their last five — and this road trip was always going to be steep. They showed enough fight to make City uncomfortable late, but not enough to really threaten the result.

City, meanwhile, look like a side finding their rhythm. Four wins in their last five, and Haaland back to doing what Haaland does. The question now is whether that late wobble is something to monitor or just a blip — because a team that leads 3-1 and nearly lets it become interesting has left something on the table, even in a win.

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