Our pre-match read
IraqvsNorway
Win Probability
7%15%78%
Home winDrawAway win

There were 63,106 people inside Gillette Stadium on Tuesday, and for long stretches it felt like they were watching a nature documentary — one large predator and a lot of open space.

Norway were simply better than Iraq in almost every way that matters, and the 4-1 scoreline was an honest accounting of that. Our pre-match read had Norway as 78% favorites, and they left absolutely no doubt.

Erling Haaland opened the scoring in the 29th minute, finishing from a David Møller Wolfe assist in the kind of move that makes it look easy. It wasn't luck. Norway had 61% of the ball and were comfortable dictating the tempo, and Haaland was doing what he does — drifting, waiting, and then being exactly where the ball arrived.

Iraq, to their credit, didn't fold. In the 39th minute, Aymen Hussein got on the end of an Amir Al-Ammari delivery and headed home to level it. For a few minutes, Gillette had a game.

Then Haaland happened again.

Four minutes later, just before the break, he found the net a second time — unassisted this time, which almost tells you more than the goal itself. Iraq had one shot on target across ninety-plus minutes. Norway had five. El chispudo de Haaland, always sniffing out the moment Iraq let their guard down for half a second.

The Second Half Settled It

Iraq came out after the break needing a goal and managed neither the ball nor the chances to get one. Norway's 536 passes to Iraq's 333 tells part of the story; the pass accuracy gap — 90% to 80% — tells the rest. Iraq were chasing shadows.

Leo Østigard made it 3-1 in the 76th minute, heading home from a Martin Ødegaard assist. Cabal, that was the moment any remaining doubt evaporated. A center back adding a goal from a set piece when you're already in control is the kind of thing that breaks the opposition's will entirely.

Zaid Tahseen picked up a yellow card in the 86th minute as Iraq's frustration surfaced — 12 fouls across the match, though Norway weren't clean either with 13 of their own.

The final note was an unfortunate one for Iraq: Aymen Hussein, who had scored their only goal, put the ball into his own net in the sixth minute of stoppage time to make it 4-1. A cruel footnote for a player who had given his side a reason to believe for about four minutes in the first half.

Iraq finished with just one shot on target. Their goalkeeper made two saves. That's the whole story of their night.

Norway will feel good about this — not just the result but the manner of it. Haaland looked sharp, the build-up play was controlled, and they gave up very little even when Iraq briefly pulled level. The question now is whether they can maintain that level against stiffer competition, but on this evidence, they look like a team that knows exactly what they are.

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