Our pre-match read
HoffenheimvsVfB Stuttgart
Win Probability
43%24%33%
Home winDrawAway win

Hoffenheim had lost three of their last five going into Saturday, and Stuttgart arrived with four wins in that same stretch. On paper, this looked like a mismatch. On the pitch, Hoffenheim had other ideas — and one player in particular made sure of it.

Adam Hlozek was the difference. He put Hoffenheim in front in the 13th minute, finishing off a move that Bambasé Conté started, and when Stuttgart pulled level early in the second half, it was Hlozek again — this time set up by Adam Daghim in the 67th — who ended the argument. Two goals, two assists from teammates, one decisive performance.

Stuttgart Had the Ball. Hoffenheim Had the Goals.

The numbers tell a clear story about how the game was played, even if not about who won it. Stuttgart finished with 57.4 percent of possession, completed 511 passes at 80 percent accuracy, and generated 16 shots. Hoffenheim had 42.6 percent of the ball, 379 passes, and 20 shots — more attempts despite less time on the ball, which says something about how each side used their moments.

Hoffenheim's goalkeeper was the busier man in the first half, making four saves on the night against Stuttgart's five shots on target. Stuttgart's keeper faced eight. The shape of the game, then, was Stuttgart probing and circulating, Hoffenheim absorbing and countering — and in the first half, that suited the hosts just fine.

Maximilian Mittelstädt's goal three minutes into the second half changed the temperature. He pulled Stuttgart level without a credited assist, and suddenly Hoffenheim's early lead felt fragile. Wouter Burger picked up a yellow card in the 63rd minute — the only booking of the night — and with Stuttgart pressing and the game level, the PreZero Arena had every reason to feel anxious.

El chispudo de Hlozek, always finding the right moment. Four minutes after Burger's booking, he put Hoffenheim back ahead, and this time it stuck.

Verdict

Our pre-match read made Hoffenheim the favorite at 43 percent, and that is how it played out. It was not a dominant performance — you cannot claim the territory when you're giving up nearly 15 percentage points of possession — but Hoffenheim were efficient where Stuttgart were not. Twenty shots and eight on target is a decent return for a side that spent most of the night chasing the ball.

Stuttgart will feel the loss acutely. They had the better of the possession stats and enough corners and set-piece opportunities to make something more of the afternoon. They did not. The question now is whether this is a one-off or the start of a slide — their form reads WWLWL, and back-to-back losses would be a different kind of concern.

For Hoffenheim, Hlozek is the story. Two goals in a win that steadies a wobbling ship. That'll do.

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