Our pre-match read
FC ColognevsHoffenheim
Win Probability
30%26%44%
Home winDrawAway win

Hoffenheim had more of everything on Saturday — more possession, more passes, more time on the ball — and still left Cologne with nothing. Thijs Dallinga scored twice in the final quarter-hour to settle a match that kept switching hands, giving FC Cologne a 3-2 win that few outside the RheinEnergieStadion saw coming.

Our pre-match read made Hoffenheim the favorite at 44%, and for the first hour it looked right.

The visitors set the tone

Adam Daghim broke the deadlock in the 27th minute, finishing off a move that Bambasé Conté started. Hoffenheim were the better team at that point and looked comfortable sitting on the lead. Cologne, with just 41 percent of the ball across the 90 minutes, had to find answers without much of the possession to work with.

They found one early in the second half. Said El Mala leveled in the 51st minute — no assist credited, just a moment of individual quality — and the match opened up.

It didn't stay level for long. Ozan Kabak put Hoffenheim back ahead in the 67th minute, heading home a Vladimír Coufal delivery. Cabal, that looked like the goal that would decide it. A center-back, unmarked at a set piece, and Cologne needing to come from behind again.

Dallinga takes over

Five minutes later, Cologne were level again. Linton Maina found Thijs Dallinga, and the Dutchman finished cleanly to make it 2-2 in the 72nd minute. The momentum had completely shifted. Hoffenheim, who'd spent most of the night dictating tempo with 490 passes at 90 percent accuracy, suddenly couldn't get a foothold.

Then Dallinga did it again. His second, in the 82nd minute, was unassisted — and that was the match. ¡Ala gran púchica! Ten minutes from time and Cologne had turned a deficit into a lead for the second time in the same game.

Kabak picked up a yellow card in the 83rd minute, one minute after the winner went in, and Max Moerstedt was booked deep into stoppage time as Hoffenheim's frustration spilled over. Neither changed what was already settled.

The numbers tell a strange story: Hoffenheim outshot Cologne 15 to 18 (close enough), but Cologne put six on target to Hoffenheim's four, and Hoffenheim's goalkeeper made three saves to Cologne's two. The visitors did more of everything except score when it mattered most.

Cologne had come into the weekend with a rough run — one win in their last five — and this was exactly the kind of result that changes a mood. Hoffenheim, meanwhile, will feel the sting of this one. They were the better side for long stretches and still ended up on the wrong end of it. The question now is whether their form (W-L-W-D-W coming in) is robust enough to absorb a loss like this, or whether giving up a two-goal advantage in the final ten minutes points to something shakier underneath.

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