Our pre-match read
EspanyolvsAtlético Madrid
Win Probability
20%24%57%
Home winDrawAway win

For 88 minutes, Espanyol did what desperate home sides do against the league's best — they absorbed, they fouled, they scrambled, and they kept the scoreline blank. Then Julián Álvarez found Álex Baena, and all that work came undone in an instant.

Baena's 89th-minute finish was the only goal at RCDE Stadium on Saturday, and it sent Atlético Madrid away with a 1-0 win that extended their perfect run to five straight. Our pre-match read had Atlético as 57% favorites, and the match bore that out completely — just not until the very end.

A Night of Siege Warfare

The numbers tell most of the story. Atlético finished with 70.7% possession, 670 passes at 90% accuracy, 19 shots, and 12 corners. Espanyol had 269 passes, 10 shots — only two on target — and a goalkeeper who made five saves to keep his side in it. For long stretches, the RCDE Stadium crowd of 30,882 watched their team simply try to survive.

And survive they did, longer than most would have managed. Espanyol's defensive shape held through wave after wave, and with the clock winding down it genuinely looked like a point might be theirs.

Cards, Chaos, and One Moment of Quality

Atlético's discipline was a running subplot. Morten Hjulmand picked up the first yellow in the 22nd minute, Lee Kang-In followed before halftime in the 43rd, and the bookings kept coming — Cristian Romero in the 66th, Álex Baena in the 68th, Rodrigo Mendoza in the 79th. Five yellows for the visitors in one match is the kind of figure that will catch the coaching staff's eye, even in victory. Espanyol weren't clean either: Roger Hinojo went into the book in the 81st minute and Unai Núñez in the 87th.

All of that edge and frustration, and still no goal — until Baena, who had already been cautioned, produced the moment that mattered. Julián Álvarez slipped him through, and Baena finished. Cabal, that was the difference between a point and nothing for Espanyol.

Verdict

Espanyol will feel the particular sting of a late loss — they defended for so long and so hard that conceding in the 89th will hurt more than a 3-0 would. Their form reads DDLLW coming in, and this won't help the confidence, though the effort was genuine.

Atlético, meanwhile, are WWWWW and looking every bit like a title contender. El chispudo de Baena, always arriving at the right moment — that quality is what separates this squad. Five wins from five, and the question now is whether anyone in LaLiga has the tools to slow them down.

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