Our pre-match read
ElchevsReal Sociedad
Win Probability
30%28%42%
Home winDrawAway win

Real Sociedad came to Estadio Martínez Valero with something to prove after back-to-back defeats, built a two-goal cushion, went down to ten men, nearly let it all slip — and then found a way. That is the short version. The long version is messier, and a lot more fun.

Our pre-match read made Real Sociedad the favorite at 42%, and the first half looked like it would be a straightforward vindication of that. Job Ochieng was everywhere from the opening whistle, and in the 11th minute he turned provider, teeing up a finish that Carlos Soler had a hand in setting up before Ochieng finished the move himself. Two minutes earlier, Jon Aramburu had picked up a yellow card — a sign that Elche were not going to make this easy — but Real Sociedad absorbed the early friction and kept pressing.

By the 31st minute it was 2-0. Ochieng again, this time the creator: his pass found Yangel Herrera, who finished cleanly. El patojo Ochieng was having a night, and Elche had no answer for him in the first half.

The Match Turns

Elche came out after the break with more urgency and 58.5% of the possession on the night — they were not short of the ball, just short of the final product. Then came the moment that cracked the game open: in the 64th minute, Real Sociedad's Jon Martín was sent off, and suddenly Elche had numbers to exploit.

They did not waste them. Three minutes later, Thomas Lemar pulled one back, assisted by Víctor Chust, and the Martínez Valero — all 15,562 inside it — found its voice. The equalizer arrived in the 74th minute: Fernando Niño, set up by José Antonio Morente, made it 2-2. ¡Ala gran púchica! — a two-goal lead, gone, and Real Sociedad down a man with sixteen minutes left.

For a stretch it looked like Elche would complete the turnaround. They had the momentum, the crowd, and the extra body. Real Sociedad's goalkeeper was busy — eight saves on the night compared to three for Elche's keeper — and the visitors were hanging on.

Then, in the 90th minute, Ochieng delivered one more time. His assist found Luka Sucic, who finished to make it 3-2 and kill the comeback dead. Cabal, that was the moment Elche's night ended.

Lemar picked up a yellow card deep in added time — seven minutes of it — more frustration than anything else, a reflection of what Elche will feel when they watch this back: a game they could have won, against ten men, that got away in the final seconds.

Real Sociedad's form coming in read WDWLL, and this result steadies a ship that had been listing. The question now is whether Ochieng can sustain that level — two assists and a goal involvement that carried his side through their worst spell of the match. For Elche, still without a win this season after LLLDD, the margin between a famous comeback and another loss could not have been thinner.

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