Celta Vigovs
AlavésCelta Vigo won a game they probably shouldn't have, and they know it. Alavés had the ball, had the shots — 20 of them to Celta's six — and had enough chances to leave Galicia with three points. Instead they leave with one goal from the 87th minute and nothing to show for an afternoon of wasted pressure.
Our pre-match read made Celta Vigo the favorite at 43%, and that is how it played out — the read was right, even if the underlying numbers would make you think twice.
The Goals Did the Talking
The first hour was tight and largely forgettable. Sebastián Cáceres picked up a yellow card in the 15th minute for Celta, and Toni Martínez did the same for Alavés right before the break — both routine fouls, neither changing anything. Alavés had the better of the first half in terms of possession and territory, but couldn't convert it into anything Celta's goalkeeper needed to worry about.
Then Ferran Jutglà broke it open in the 53rd minute, finishing off an assist from Javi Rodríguez. It was one of only three shots Celta managed on target all afternoon, and it counted. Cabal, that is the kind of efficiency that wins you games when the run of play isn't going your way.
Javi Rodríguez then flipped roles eighteen minutes later, turning from provider to scorer. Iago Aspas set him up in the 71st, and Rodríguez made it 2-0. Two goals from six shots, both in the second half, both from a team that hadn't earned the right to be ahead on the balance of play.
Eight Saves and a Long Night
The stats tell the real story of this match. Alavés put nine shots on target and got one goal. Celta's goalkeeper made eight saves — a massive individual shift that kept the scoreline from turning into something very different. Alavés had 52.4% possession, four corners to Celta's zero, and 20 total attempts. El dominio de Alavés was real and relentless, and it still wasn't enough.
Hugo Novoa pulled one back in the 87th minute, assisted by Mariano Díaz, but it was too late to matter. The three minutes of pressure that followed amounted to nothing, and Balaídos celebrated a win that felt more like a heist than a performance.
What It Means
Celta Vigo's form coming in — DLDWL — suggested a team that hadn't quite found its footing. This result helps, but the way they won it will raise questions about sustainability. You cannot keep making eight saves and converting at this rate and expect it to hold up over a season.
For Alavés, the concern is real. LLDLL is a rough stretch, and this loss will sting most because they were the better team for long stretches and have nothing to show for it. The question now is whether they can start turning that kind of performance into points before the table gets away from them.
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